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AI GOVT Forecast


Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish

Bullish Case: The potential for a Fed rate cut in the near future could drive demand for GOVT as investors seek safety, enhancing price recovery and leading to solid returns.

Bearish Case: Persistently high inflation may force the Fed to maintain or increase interest rates, negatively impacting GOVT prices as yields become less attractive to investors.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Fed cuts rates (30%);

2. Economic growth stabilizes post-recession (25%);

3. Increased geopolitical tensions (20%);

4. Inflation pressures persist (15%);

5. New fiscal stimulus introduced (10%).

Trading Oracle: Execute a debit spread, buying GOVT 24.00C and selling 25.00C for July 2025. This strategy gains if prices rise, capturing increased demand as market volatility declines post-Fed announcements.

August 22, 2024


BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Treasury Bond Forecast

GOVT      BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Treasury Bond

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with GOVT


IEI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEI  BTC iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond (0.99)


BND Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BND  Vanguard Total Bond Market (0.99)


TLH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TLH  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond (0.97)


SPTL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPTL  Active Trust - SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury (0.95)


VGLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VGLT  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (0.95)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GOVT


TSLA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TSLA  Tesla (0.0)


OPRA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OPRA  Opera (0.0)


PAX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAX  Patria Investments Ltd (-0.0)


DBX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DBX  Dropbox (0.0)


CC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CC  Chemours (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GOVT


UUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUP  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish (-0.73)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.89)


SRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRS  ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (-0.9)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.98)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.98)



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