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GOVT Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Rising demand for safe-haven assets and potential Fed rate cuts could boost GOVT demand, enhancing prices amidst uncertainty.

Bearish Case: High inflation and potential rate hikes may erode GOVT value as yields become less attractive, deterring investments.

Potential Outcomes: Fed rate cut: 35%, inflation spikes: 30%, economic stabilization: 25%, geopolitical tensions: 10%.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread: buy GOVT 23.00C and sell 24.00C for July 2025. Leverage potential rate cuts and safe-haven demand. Expected market stabilization boosts reward:risk ratio and probability of profit.

January 14, 2025

BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Treasury Bond Forecast

GOVT BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Treasury Bond

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with GOVT

VGLT Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (0.91)

VRNS Varonis Systems (0.7)

NOVA Sunnova Energy International (0.7)

FXY Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (0.7)

VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.64)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GOVT

BEKE KE (0.0)

MTZ Mastec (0.0)

HIMS Hims & Hers Health (-0.0)

GME Gamestop (-0.01)

GIII G-III Apparel (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GOVT

APH Amphenol (-0.59)

UAN CVR Partners (-0.61)

ETR Entergy (-0.62)

FREY FREYR Battery (-0.64)

TMV Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.94)

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