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GOVT Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Safe-haven demand rises amid economic uncertainty, boosting GOVT prices as investors flock to U.S. Treasury securities.

Bearish Case: Persistently high inflation pressures the Fed to keep rates elevated, negatively impacting GOVT returns as indicated by the historical return surface.

Potential Outcomes: Fed rate cuts stimulating demand (35%)
Persistent inflation affecting yields (30%)
Economic stabilization (25%)
Geopolitical tensions impacting prices (10%)

March 22, 2025

BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Treasury Bond Forecast

GOVT BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Treasury Bond

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with GOVT

TYD Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (0.88)

KO Coca-Cola (0.83)

UL Unilever (0.75)

VOD Vodafone (0.7)

ZROZ PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded (0.68)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GOVT

YINN Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares (-0.0)

ADM Archer Daniels Midland (0.0)

TT Trane (-0.0)

SLS SELLAS Life Sciences (0.01)

AEHR Aehr Test Systems (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GOVT

PCOR Procore (-0.64)

FRSH Freshworks (-0.65)

TDOC Teladoc Health (-0.67)

LYFT Lyft (-0.7)

TBT PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.84)

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