GOVT Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Safe-haven demand rises amid economic uncertainty, boosting GOVT prices as investors flock to U.S. Treasury securities.




Bearish Case: Persistently high inflation pressures the Fed to keep rates elevated, negatively impacting GOVT returns as indicated by the historical return surface.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Fed rate cuts stimulating demand (35%)
  • Persistent inflation affecting yields (30%)
  • Economic stabilization (25%)
  • Geopolitical tensions impacting prices (10%)



March 22, 2025


BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Treasury Bond Forecast

GOVT        BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Treasury Bond











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with GOVT



TYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TYD  Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (0.88)


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (0.83)


UL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UL  Unilever (0.75)


VOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOD  Vodafone (0.7)


ZROZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZROZ  PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded (0.68)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GOVT



YINN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YINN  Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares (-0.0)


ADM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADM  Archer Daniels Midland (0.0)


TT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TT  Trane (-0.0)


SLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SLS  SELLAS Life Sciences (0.01)


AEHR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AEHR  Aehr Test Systems (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GOVT



PCOR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PCOR  Procore (-0.64)


FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (-0.65)


TDOC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDOC  Teladoc Health (-0.67)


LYFT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYFT  Lyft (-0.7)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.84)









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