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GOVT Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Rising demand for safe-haven assets and potential Fed rate cuts could boost GOVT demand, enhancing prices amidst uncertainty.

Bearish Case: High inflation and potential rate hikes may erode GOVT value as yields become less attractive, deterring investments.

Potential Outcomes: Fed rate cut: 35%, inflation spikes: 30%, economic stabilization: 25%, geopolitical tensions: 10%.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread: buy GOVT 23.00C and sell 24.00C for July 2025. Leverage potential rate cuts and safe-haven demand. Expected market stabilization boosts reward:risk ratio and probability of profit.

January 14, 2025

BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Treasury Bond Forecast

GOVT BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Treasury Bond

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with GOVT

VGLT Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (0.89)

EXR Extra Space Storage (0.69)

FXY Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (0.69)

VOD Vodafone (0.66)

FXE Invesco CurrencyShares Euro (0.61)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GOVT

LEA Lear (-0.0)

UBS UBS (-0.0)

RNW ReNew Energy Global plc (-0.0)

GLNG Golar Lng (0.01)

KNTK Kinetik (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GOVT

CRNC Cerence (-0.48)

CORN Teucrium Corn (-0.49)

TDOC Teladoc Health (-0.51)

EUO ProShares UltraShort Euro (-0.53)

LAC Lithium Americas (-0.65)

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