GOVT Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: GOVT benefits from safe-haven demand during economic instability and possible Fed rate cuts, enhancing its appeal and support for price recovery.




Bearish Case: Persistently high inflation and interest rates continue to suppress GOVT prices, with historical data favoring negative returns, fueling selling pressure.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Fed rate cut supporting GOVT: 30%
  • Economic downturn impacting GOVT: 25%
  • Stable economy boosting demand: 20%
  • Inflationary pressure: 15%
  • Geopolitical tensions influence: 10%



April 23, 2025


BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Treasury Bond Forecast

GOVT        BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Treasury Bond











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with GOVT



TYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TYD  Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (0.88)


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (0.83)


UL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UL  Unilever (0.75)


VOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOD  Vodafone (0.7)


ZROZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZROZ  PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded (0.68)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GOVT



YINN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YINN  Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares (-0.0)


ADM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADM  Archer Daniels Midland (0.0)


TT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TT  Trane (-0.0)


FOXA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FOXA  Fox Corporation - (0.01)


LRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LRN  Stride (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GOVT



DAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAL  Delta Air Lines (-0.69)


LYFT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYFT  Lyft (-0.7)


YCS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YCS  ProShares UltraShort Yen (-0.71)


TTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTI  Tetra Technologies (-0.74)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.84)









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