Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Strong institutional support and solid earnings growth underpin GRBK's potential for recovery, especially as implied volatility indicates markets underestimating this upside. Targeting longer expirations could capitalize on this growth.

Bearish Case: Elevated implied volatility signals market skepticism, suggesting potential overvaluation risk. Insider selling and mixed recent performance could lead to substantial pullbacks, particularly if broader market declines persist.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued earnings growth: 65% chance,

2) Market pullback leading to price decline: 25% chance,

3) Stable price range with minor fluctuations: 10% chance.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish long-dated call debit spread targeting March 2025 with $75 and $85 strikes. The current high option volume on calls signifies strong bullish sentiment. Monitor earnings and market sentiment for adjustments. Aim for high reward-to-risk ratios and manage risk via volatility assessments.

November 20, 2024