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HOG Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Harley-Davidson's pivot to electric motorcycles and Asian market expansion could drive growth. Strong options activity suggests investor optimism.

Bearish Case: Continued tariff impacts, activist pressures, and a high backwardation in implied volatility suggest ongoing instability and competitive challenges.

Potential Outcomes: Electric motorcycle success boosts sales (30%).
Tariffs and activist pressure reduce margins (50%).
New CEO ushers positive change (20%).

April 23, 2025

Harley-Davidson Forecast

HOG Harley-Davidson

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with HOG

TXT Textron (0.9)

CAL Caleres (0.88)

UWMC UWM Holdings Corporation (0.87)

NAVI Navient (0.87)

JOE St. Joe (0.87)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HOG

KO Coca-Cola (0.01)

RACE Ferrari (0.01)

SCO ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.01)

TDOC Teladoc Health (0.01)

VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HOG

VNET VNET (-0.78)

MP MP Materials (-0.79)

LPLA LPL Financial (-0.81)

HIMS Hims & Hers Health (-0.82)

MAIN Main Street (-0.83)

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