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HOG Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Harley-Davidson's pivot to electric motorcycles and Asian market expansion could drive growth. Strong options activity suggests investor optimism.



Bearish Case: Continued tariff impacts, activist pressures, and a high backwardation in implied volatility suggest ongoing instability and competitive challenges.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Electric motorcycle success boosts sales (30%).
  2. Tariffs and activist pressure reduce margins (50%).
  3. New CEO ushers positive change (20%).


April 23, 2025


Harley-Davidson Forecast

HOG        Harley-Davidson

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