HOG Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: HOG may benefit from positive sentiment around new product launches and upcoming earnings on July 25, potentially boosting sales and brand loyalty. Rebound in consumer interest could support stronger performance.


Bearish Case: Despite attempts to strengthen brand positioning, ongoing management issues and economic pressures may lead to stagnation or a continued slide in stock price. Market competitiveness remains a key concern.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful new product launches could present a 55% chance of lifting HOG shares.

2. Market conditions and economic pressures might persist, with a 60% chance of continued declines.

3. Upcoming earnings report on July 25 presents a 45% chance for positive surprises.


Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a short-term bullish play using a debit spread. Buy $35 calls (delta 0.44) while selling $36 calls (delta 0.46) with volatility skew favoring upside. This strategy targets a 75% probability-of-profit on potential upward movements surrounding earnings/results.


July 24, 2024


Harley-Davidson Forecast

HOG      Harley-Davidson











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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HOG



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CTRA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CTRA  Coterra Energy (-0.01)


GRWG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GRWG  GrowGeneration (-0.01)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HOG



EQNR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EQNR  Equinor ASA - (-0.68)


HUM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUM  Humana (-0.72)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.72)


SARK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SARK  Tuttle Capital Short Innovation (-0.73)


RWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWM  ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.74)





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