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HOOD Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Increased call option activity and a high bullish risk ratio suggest investor confidence, bolstered by recent price surges.



Bearish Case: Mean-reverting price action and high historical volatility indicate risk of correction, exacerbated by macroeconomic headwinds and regulatory scrutiny.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 30% chance of positive earnings lifting stock.
  • 50% chance of macroeconomic challenges stalling growth.
  • 20% chance of strategic partnerships boosting price.



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying HOOD $60 calls and selling $65 calls, targeting mid-term horizon. The backwardation suggests short-term dislocation potential, capitalizing on high volatility and call volume for a low-risk, high-reward strategy. The edge is in leveraging the implied volatility drop.


February 11, 2025


Robinhood Markets Forecast

HOOD        Robinhood Markets

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with HOOD


VOO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOO  Vanguard S&P 500 (0.95)


SPTM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPTM  SPDR Series Trust - SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500 Composite Stock Market (0.95)


ITOT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ITOT  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market (0.95)


SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.94)


BSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSX  Boston Scientific (0.94)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HOOD


KRP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KRP  Kimbell Royalty Partners (0.0)


COO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COO  Cooper Companies (0.01)


CPS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CPS  Cooper-Standard (0.01)


ING Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ING  ING Groep (-0.01)


MT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MT  New York Shares (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HOOD


AMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMN  AMN Healthcare Services (-0.86)


SLDB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SLDB  Solid Biosciences (-0.89)


CAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAL  Caleres (-0.89)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (-0.9)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.93)







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