Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: IRDM could benefit from strong commercial growth through expanding IoT sectors and stable government contracts, suggesting a potential price rebound as historical data shows positive mean reversion patterns.

Bearish Case: An unexpected loss of key government contracts may lead to significant revenue declines, compounded by high implied volatility indicating increased market uncertainty and potential price drops.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Revenue growth due to IoT expansion (35% chance).

2) Loss of critical contracts leading to 15% price drop (30% chance).

3) Unexpected contracts secure (20% chance).

4) No change, stable (15% chance).

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish call spread (buy IRDM 30C, sell 35C) to capitalize on a potential recovery in the stock price, leveraging positive odds for profit. Target expiration within 31 days as implied volatility peaks suggest a high reward-to-risk structure.

November 21, 2024