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IVE Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: IVE enjoys a favorable environment due to its mean reverting nature and stable growth signals. Historical data points to consistent positive returns over time, bolstered by reassuring investor sentiment toward its value strategy.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and recent price declines may signify continued market caution. Concerns over broader economic conditions and potential overvaluation persist, suggesting downside risks remain significant.

Potential Outcomes: 40% chance of a modest decline, 30% chance of stability, 30% chance of moderate upside driven by market optimism. Ongoing market conditions play a key role.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread targeting June 2025 given the current volatility term structure. Select strikes around 195-205 to leverage expected stability and potential upside. High reward:risk ratio with limited downside risk.

January 15, 2025

iShares S&P 500 Value Forecast

IVE iShares S&P 500 Value

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IVE

UDOW ProShares UltraPro Dow30 (0.94)

TT Trane (0.93)

UNM Unum (0.92)

CINF Cincinnati Financial (0.92)

DFEN Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (0.91)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IVE

HCC Warrior Met Coal (-0.0)

OLED Universal Display (0.01)

KRP Kimbell Royalty Partners (0.01)

CPS Cooper-Standard (-0.01)

UVXY ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IVE

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.81)

IEP Icahn (-0.81)

EL Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.81)

SHLS Shoals (-0.83)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.92)

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