IVE Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: IVE's historical data hints at mean reversion, suggesting potential recovery soon. Recent price stability reinforces this view.




Bearish Case: Elevated short-term volatility and negative market sentiment could exacerbate downside risks, impacting investor confidence.




Potential Outcomes: 30% chance of price uptick due to mean reversion, 40% chance of stagnation amidst uncertainty, 30% chance of decline from volatility spikes.




Trading Oracle: Opt for a bearish credit spread strategy near-term due to elevated implied volatilities around $195-$200. This capitalizes on increased volatility while limiting downside risk. Expiry March-April 2025 maximizes premium and hedge capacity.



February 21, 2025


iShares S&P 500 Value Forecast

IVE        iShares S&P 500 Value











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IVE



DDM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDM  ProShares Ultra Dow30 (0.96)


VIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIG  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Dividend Appreciation FTF (0.94)


MTB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MTB  M & T (0.92)


RY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RY  Royal Bank Of Canada (0.91)


BLK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BLK  Blackrock (0.91)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IVE



AIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AIG  American International (-0.0)


MNST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MNST  Monster Beverage (-0.01)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (-0.01)


UUUU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUUU  Energy Fuels (0.02)


VERV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VERV  Verve Therapeutics (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IVE



EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.76)


CLW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLW  Clearwater Paper (-0.77)


EC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EC  Ecopetrol SA (-0.79)


ASML Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASML  New York Shares (-0.79)


SAGE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAGE  Sage Therapeutics (-0.81)









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