Bullish Case: Joby makes significant progress toward 2025 commercial launch with pilot flights, facility investments, and partnerships (e.g. Toyota, SK Telecom). Regulatory momentum in California further supports business case.


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Bearish Case: Profitability concerns remain with no clear path to positive cash flow. Short sellers cast doubt on growth forecasts and margin assumptions. Regulatory timeline risks persist.


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Takeaway: Joby makes tangible progress toward the 2025 goal but profitability visibility remains low and competitive risks are heightened. Thus warranting a balanced perspective accounting for significant upside potential and downside risks. Regulatory approval and production ramp are key milestones to monitor.


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Potential Outcomes:

1. Joby achieves certification and initiates commercial operations on time (50%). Supporting evidence includes pilot flights, facility planning, and regulatory progress. If successful, major upside potential.

2. Certification delays push back commercial launch (30%). Complex certification process poses challenges. Would negatively impact investor confidence and require additional financing.

3. Competitors take market share (20%). Industry has significant growth potential but remains early stage and competitive landscape evolving quickly.


December 02, 2023







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OPEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [OPEN]  Opendoor (0.95)


XLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [XLY]  Active Trust - Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (0.94)


XHB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [XHB]  SPDR Homebuilders (0.92)


MRVL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [MRVL]  Marvell Technology (0.92)


SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SSO]  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.91)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to JOBY



JNK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [JNK]  SPDR Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond (-0.01)


RHI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [RHI]  Robert Half International (0.01)


RBLX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [RBLX]  Roblox Corporation - (-0.01)


DFS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [DFS]  Discover Financial Services (0.01)


CLMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [CLMT]  Calumet Specialty Products (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against JOBY



VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [VXX]  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.81)


QID Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [QID]  ProShares UltraShort QQQ (-0.87)


SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SDS]  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.9)


SPXU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SPXU]  ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 (-0.9)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SPXS]  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.91)