Bullish Case: Joby makes significant progress toward 2025 commercial launch with pilot flights, facility investments, and partnerships (e.g. Toyota, SK Telecom). Regulatory momentum in California further supports business case.
Show historical bullish cases
July 06, 2023: Joby Aviation is making significant progress in electric air taxi production with FAA approval for test flights [Epoch Times, Engadget]. They also have strong financial backing from Toyota [Engadget].
July 27, 2023: Joby Aviation has successfully initiated FAA-approved test flights [electrek.co], potentially facilitating their goal of launching a commercial air taxi service [Yahoo].
September 19, 2023: Joby Aviation's planned $500M investment in a large-scale production facility indicates strong growth ambition, while their recent successful hydrogen-powered test flight demonstrates technological leadership in the eVTOL space [Market Watch, Business Insider].
October 10, 2023: Joby Aviation shows great potential with its pioneering eVTOL aircraft, reaching key milestones such as completing a successful test flight with a hydrogen-powered electric aircraft, and working to win FAA certification [Business Insider, Interesting Engineering]. The company also plans to build a substantial manufacturing facility in Dayton, Ohio, capable of producing up to 500 aircraft per year, thereby creating around 2000 jobs [Reuters, Market Watch].
Bearish Case: Profitability concerns remain with no clear path to positive cash flow. Short sellers cast doubt on growth forecasts and margin assumptions. Regulatory timeline risks persist.
Show historical bearish cases
July 06, 2023: Considering the niche, unproven and highly-regulated market Joby Aviation operates in, there are numerous obstacles to commercial viability including obtaining FAA certification [LA Times].
July 27, 2023: Joby's stock is considered overvalued compared to eVTOL peers and FAA certification timeline risks exist [seekingalpha.com].
September 19, 2023: The company suffers from persistent profitability issues, resulting in a negative market sentiment indicated by a call to sell the stock, with insider shares selling suggesting uncertainty within the organization itself [CNBC, simplywall.st].
October 10, 2023: Joby Aviation faces significant financial challenges, with recent news indicating insider hesitancy as they sold $1.6M of shares [simplywall.st]. Moreover, the company had a Q2 loss of $286 million, mainly due to aircraft development costs [Business Insider]. There is also pronounced volatility in the company's stock price, an element that is likely to continue [investorplace.com, CNBC, Helium, Helium].
Takeaway: Joby makes tangible progress toward the 2025 goal but profitability visibility remains low and competitive risks are heightened. Thus warranting a balanced perspective accounting for significant upside potential and downside risks. Regulatory approval and production ramp are key milestones to monitor.
Show historical takeaways
July 06, 2023: Joby Aviation's recent achievements put it on a pragmatic path to commercial launch, however, the regulatory hurdles and industry uncertainties remain significant challenges [Epoch Times, LA Times].
July 27, 2023: Joby's progress towards FAA certification may pave the path for their commercial launch, but industry uncertainties and competition pose risks [Helium].
September 19, 2023: While Joby shows promise with its production investment and technological advancements, its ongoing profitability issues and the challenge of an emerging market require careful monitoring of potential risks and opportunities.
October 10, 2023: Joby Aviation offers great potential with a clear vision for the future of aviation and environmental considerations. However, financial constraints and high volatility in stock prices make it a risky investment, thus warranting careful consideration [CNBC, simplywall.st, Business Insider]. The construction of the manufacturing facility in Ohio and FAA certification will be key determinants of Joby's success [Reuters, Interesting Engineering].
Potential Outcomes:
1. Joby achieves certification and initiates commercial operations on time (50%). Supporting evidence includes pilot flights, facility planning, and regulatory progress. If successful, major upside potential.
2. Certification delays push back commercial launch (30%). Complex certification process poses challenges. Would negatively impact investor confidence and require additional financing.
3. Competitors take market share (20%). Industry has significant growth potential but remains early stage and competitive landscape evolving quickly.
December 02, 2023
[OPEN] Opendoor (0.95)
[XLY] Active Trust - Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (0.94)
[XHB] SPDR Homebuilders (0.92)
[MRVL] Marvell Technology (0.92)
[SSO] ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.91)
[JNK] SPDR Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond (-0.01)
[RHI] Robert Half International (0.01)
[RBLX] Roblox Corporation - (-0.01)
[DFS] Discover Financial Services (0.01)
[CLMT] Calumet Specialty Products (-0.02)
[VXX] iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.81)
[QID] ProShares UltraShort QQQ (-0.87)
[SDS] ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.9)
[SPXU] ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 (-0.9)
[SPXS] Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.91)
