Bullish Case: JRVR could rally due to its recent mean reversion, strategic alternatives exploration boosting potential M&A activity, and unexpected favorable adjustments in casualty insurance markets.


Bearish Case: JRVR may continue its decline due to historic underperformance, high implied volatility among short-term options, and ongoing challenges in the commercial auto and casualty sectors.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued recovery in short-term due to mean reversion (45% chance).

2. Decline due to long-term negative trends and market skepticism (40% chance).

3. M&A activity creating temporary price spikes (15% chance).


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April 26, 2024


James River Forecast

JRVR        James River
Price Forecast: BEARISH    Price Action: MEAN REVERTING (?)











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