Bullish Case: KHC's focus on cost-cutting, sustainability, and new leadership may drive operational efficiencies and margin improvements, supported by favorable volatility structures indicating potential upside moves.

Bearish Case: Persistent insider selling, ongoing litigation, and negative consumer sentiment signal fundamental weaknesses, suggesting continued price pressure despite volatility patterns.

Potential Outcomes:

• 30% chance of minor price recovery leveraging operational efficiencies.
• 35% risk of continued decline due to consumer preference shifts and litigation costs.
• 20% chance of flat price action amid volatility normalization.
• 15% probability of brief price uptick from strategic initiatives.

Trading Oracle: Execute a short put spread: sell March 2025 $30.5 puts, buy $30.0 puts. Capitalize on mean-reversion and elevated implied volatility. High probability of profit with strategic exposure to slight or stable price adjustments. Optimize around earnings for timely closure, aiming for a quick premium capture.

January 30, 2025