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LAC Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: LAC could rebound due to increased EV demand and upcoming government support, particularly after General Motors' substantial investment in Thacker Pass. This, alongside potential positive legal developments, sets the stage for a price surge.



Bearish Case: Lingering legal challenges related to the Thacker Pass project pose significant risks, potentially deterring investors and suppressing share price despite favorable market conditions for lithium.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive legal outcomes for Thacker Pass (35%).

2. Continued market pressure leading to share price decline (30%).

3. Increased demand for lithium due to EV growth (25%).

4. Significant regulatory setbacks hindering progress (10%).



Trading Oracle: Engage in a bullish debit spread by buying LAC January 2025 call options at $4.50 and selling higher strike calls at $5.00. This captures upside potential as implied volatility trends favorable, targeting substantial EV market gains with manageable risk. Consider adding short put options for enhanced yield.


November 13, 2024


Lithium Americas Forecast

LAC        Lithium Americas

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