LAC Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Increasing lithium demand and potential resolution of legal issues could boost LAC’s valuation. Recent discovery of lithium reserves in the U.S. may enhance market sentiment.




Bearish Case: High legal and environmental risks persist, alongside volatile lithium prices. Market data shows ongoing flat price action and declining investor confidence. Implied volatility spikes could signal further setbacks.




Potential Outcomes: 35% chance LAC benefits from EV demand; 30% chance legal setbacks reduce value; 25% chance market volatility impacts pricing.




Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread using LAC January 2025 calls at $3.50 and selling $5.00 calls. Capture upside from potential resolutions and lithium demand, leveraging high implied volatility for positive edge. Manage risks by adjusting spreads based on market sentiment shifts with February reviews.



December 27, 2024


Lithium Americas Forecast

LAC        Lithium Americas











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