Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Increasing demand for construction materials and potential strategic partnerships could drive LOMA's growth, supported by historical positive returns in shorter holding periods.

Bearish Case: Economic uncertainty and potential supply chain disruptions may lead to further declines, as indicated by the significant historical negative returns in longer holding periods.

Potential Outcomes:

1. +0.64% price growth (30% chance) driven by positive market shifts;

2. Price stagnation (20% chance) due to ongoing uncertainty;

3. -5% price decline (50% chance) amid economic pressures, supported by historical trends.

Trading Oracle: Initiate a long volatility strategy by buying the 03/21/2025 10.00C call option, leveraging LOMA's current implied volatility of 52.7%. Consider selling a lower-strike call to create a credit spread, capitalizing on potential upward movement while managing exposure. Time outlook: 4-5 months, aiming for high reward:risk with probabilities suggesting a solid edge.

November 05, 2024