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MAA Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Increasing demand in the apartment sector alongside strong fundamentals is likely to propel MAA’s price upwards, reflected by the higher implied volatility favoring call options over puts.



Bearish Case: Market uncertainty coupled with potential oversupply in Sunbelt areas may pressurize rental prices, pushing MAA downward, as indicated by the current flat price action and higher option trading volume in puts.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 55% chance of maintaining strong demand leading to revenue growth.

2. 30% chance that oversupply pressures rental prices cause profit declines.

3. 15% chance of significant downturn from external economic uncertainties.



Trading Oracle: Given the elevated implied volatility in puts (increase near 144.5%), consider executing a bearish call credit spread by selling 155/160 calls, capitalizing on the current flat trend and uncertainty while retaining strong probability of profit.


November 08, 2024


Mid-America Apartment Communities Forecast

MAA        Mid-America Apartment Communities

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