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MAGA Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: MAGA benefits from low implied volatility, suggesting a stable pre-election environment. Historical return probabilities reveal potential upward movement with optimistic political outcomes.

Bearish Case: Political instability and legal challenges for Trump signal downside risk, with rising implied volatility indicating market concern and potential sharp declines.

Potential Outcomes:

1. GOP-driven rally boosts MAGA (45%).

2. Political turmoil causes stagnation (35%).

3. Negative legal/electoral outcomes sharply lower price (20%) Helium.

Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread on MAGA with $44-$46 strikes, capitalizing on potential GOP momentum and low IV. Target 1-3 months for event-driven movement. This setup offers solid risk management and favorable reward potential in a politically charged climate.

January 14, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MAGA

SPYV SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value (0.98)

SPLV Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility (0.95)

UNM Unum (0.95)

CINF Cincinnati Financial (0.94)

DDM ProShares Ultra Dow30 (0.93)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MAGA

RIOT Riot Blockchain (-0.0)

GIS General Mills (-0.01)

ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line (-0.01)

HCC Warrior Met Coal (-0.02)

WPC W. P. Carey (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MAGA

COTY Coty (-0.81)

IEP Icahn (-0.81)

SHLS Shoals (-0.82)

APLS Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.83)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.9)

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* Disclaimer: Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.