Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: The historical return surface shows a significant probability of price rebound given historical patterns and current volatility, suggesting a potential upside for MAX as investor sentiment improves and new product launches are anticipated.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and market uncertainty suggest the potential for sharp declines. A revisit of historical underperformance may trigger bearish sentiment among investors amid regulatory scrutiny, leading to a downward pressure on MAX's price.

Potential Outcomes:

• 30% chance of a bullish reversal spurred by positive earnings.
• 25% chance of continued decline due to regulatory challenges.
• 20% chance of stability amidst market fluctuations.
• 15% chance of extreme volatility leading to panic selling.
• 10% chance of a substantial price rebound given positive product feedback.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread: buy MAX 05/16/2025 15.00 Calls and sell MAX 20.00 Calls. The high implied volatility supports a long volatility strategy that could yield significant returns if a rebound occurs. Targeting growth and careful monitoring of earnings dates aligns with risk management protocols, optimizing the reward:risk profile.

December 15, 2024