MAX Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Increased call volume indicates bullish sentiment. Historical volatility shows occasional explosive upside potential.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility and historical underperformance suggest significant downside risk. Regulatory challenges loom large.




Potential Outcomes: Expect moderate gains (40%) as market stabilizes, regulatory pressures ease (30%), or decline continues due to volatility (30%).




Trading Oracle: Initiate a short volatility strategy via credit spreads. Sell MAX May 16 12.50 Calls, buy 15.00 Calls. This harnesses elevated implied volatility, offering a favorable reward:risk profile with limited downside. Timeframe: 90 days.



January 15, 2025


MediaAlpha Forecast

MAX        MediaAlpha











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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MAX



CRNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRNC  Cerence (-0.0)


CNXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNXC  Concentrix (0.0)


CZR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CZR  Caesars Entertainment (0.0)


KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (0.01)


TPG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TPG  TPG (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MAX



CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.44)


CWAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWAN  Clearwater Analytics Holdings (-0.45)


ALKT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALKT  Alkami Technology (-0.46)


NKLA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NKLA  Nikola (-0.48)


ATGE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATGE  Adtalem Global Education (-0.52)









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