MERC Forecast


Bullish Case: MERC's short-term volatility appears relatively low, suggesting potential for short-term price stabilization. Historical returns show a likelihood of mild positive returns over longer holding periods, indicating potential for gradual upside.


Bearish Case: MERC’s recent price decline and sustained low momentum could indicate upcoming downside risk. The HeliumTrades forecast aligns market implied volatility lower, signaling potential volatility spikes, implying further price drops.


Potential Outcomes: MERC could see a sharp move if market conditions change, estimated at a 40% probability. Alternatively, with 50% likelihood, MERC may follow a flat trend influenced by current low volatility surfaces.


Trading Oracle: Implement a credit spread strategy using MERC options. Capitalize on the current low volatility by selling out-of-the-money puts around $7 strike expiring August, with a delta of ~-0.22 and high implied volatility. This position captures premium in a likely stable to mildly bullish short-term outlook.


June 28, 2024


Mercer International Forecast

MERC      Mercer International











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MERC



CNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNQ  Canadian Natural Resources (0.73)


WMB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMB  Williams Cos (0.73)


AEM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AEM  Agnico Eagle Mines (0.72)


AM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AM  Antero Midstream (0.71)


HUYA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUYA  HUYA (0.71)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MERC



TWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWO  Two Harbors Investment (0.0)


MGM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MGM  MGM Resorts International (-0.0)


BG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BG  Bunge (0.0)


GPN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GPN  Global Payments (0.0)


ZBH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZBH  Zimmer Biomet (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MERC



EXTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXTR  Extreme Networks (-0.59)


MLCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MLCO  Melco Resorts & Entertainment (-0.59)


ACLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACLS  Axcelis (-0.59)


SHLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHLS  Shoals (-0.59)


WMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMT  Walmart (-0.67)





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