MHO Forecast


Bullish Case: The mean-reverting nature of MHO, coupled with a +1.23% AI forecast, suggests a potential for steady upward movement. The strong historical resilience and low price-to-book ratio (0.8) add to the bullish outlook [Helium, Helium].


Bearish Case: Higher implied volatility and elevated uncertainties suggest potential downside risks. Market perception of housing peak and investment hesitancy due to rising mortgage rates could hinder further growth [seekingalpha.com, seekingalpha.com, Helium].


Potential Outcomes: Modest uptrend (50%), flat trajectory as market absorbs recent changes (30%), or downturn driven by economic uncertainties (20%) [Helium, Helium, Helium].


Trading Oracle: Implement a debit call spread targeting October 2024 with 125-135 strikes to capture potential upward movement, considering Helium's higher volatility forecast. Simultaneously, execute a bullish put credit spread with 105/115 strikes to benefit from the mean reversion. This balanced approach leverages both potential uptrends and high implied volatility .


June 30, 2024


MI Homes Forecast

MHO      MI Homes











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MHO



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.68)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.01)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.33)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.5)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MHO



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.01)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.33)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.5)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.68)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MHO



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.68)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.01)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.33)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.5)





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