MOH Forecast


Bullish Case: Molina Healthcare's strong Medicaid enrollment growth, stable revenue streams, and strategic partnership announcements, along with mean-reverting price action, indicate long-term upside potential.


Bearish Case: Increased medical costs, insider stock sales, potential regulatory changes, and mean-reverting price action highlight downside risks due to potential margin squeezes and operational challenges.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Cost stabilization and membership growth (60%): Boosts stock.

2. Elevated costs squeeze margins (25%): Stock declines.

3. Negative regulatory impacts (10%): Major drop.

4. Unanticipated negative events (5%): Sharp decline.


Trading Oracle: Execute bullish calendar debit spreads targeting the September 2024 calls with a strike of $300 and $340. Leverage backwardation in term structure and elevated implied volatility. High reward:risk targeting medium-term outlook. Maintain tight stop-loss below $250 for risk management.


July 16, 2024


Molina Healthcare Forecast

MOH      Molina Healthcare











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