MSM Forecast


Bullish Case: Given current market conditions and implied volatility from options data, MSM shows potential upside as macroeconomic recovery hints at demand resurgence, pushing stock prices significantly higher in the coming months.


Bearish Case: With consistent negative returns and observed high implied volatility, MSM may face downward pressure due to ongoing manufacturing slowdowns and economic uncertainties, risking further declines in stock performance.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of gradual recovery as market stabilizes.

2. 30% probability for continued range-bound behavior reflecting historical trends.

3. 20% likelihood of a significant drop due to negative earnings reports.

4. 10% chance for a robust rebound on unexpected positive news.


Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish long call spread, buying the MSM 90C (expiring in August) while selling the 95C. This strategy leverages lower implied volatility while providing room for upside if the stock price trends positively. Monitor earnings periods for adjustments.


July 24, 2024


MSC Industrial Direct Co. Forecast

MSM      MSC Industrial Direct Co.











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MSM



NTLA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NTLA  Intellia Therapeutics (0.72)


IYT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IYT  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Transportation (0.7)


JBHT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JBHT  J.B. Hunt Transport Services (0.7)


CMCSA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMCSA  Comcast (0.69)


DOMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DOMO  Domo (0.68)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MSM



LOVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LOVE  Lovesac (-0.0)


FNV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FNV  Franco-Nevada (0.0)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (0.0)


F Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   F  Ford Motor (0.0)


SEE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SEE  Sealed Air (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MSM



CHD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHD  Church & Dwight Co. (-0.57)


ACGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACGL  Arch (-0.57)


SPOT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPOT  Spotify Technology (-0.58)


EGO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EGO  Eldorado Gold (-0.58)


YCS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YCS  ProShares UltraShort Yen (-0.6)





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