MSM Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: MSM's consistent mean-reversion suggests an undervaluation, with potential upside as market conditions stabilize and operational strengths endure.




Bearish Case: Backwardation in implied volatility and excess put trading signal downside risks, potentially exacerbated by unfavorable macro conditions.




Potential Outcomes: MSM may remain range-bound (45%) due to historical patterns. There's a 30% chance of upside with stable markets, yet 25% downside risk persists from external pressures.



March 15, 2025


MSC Industrial Direct Co. Forecast

MSM        MSC Industrial Direct Co.











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MSM



DAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAR  Darling Ingredients (0.72)


DIN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DIN  Dine Brands (0.72)


GT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GT  Goodyear Tire & Rubber (0.71)


SLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SLB  Schlumberger (0.7)


HST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HST  Host Hotels & Resorts (0.69)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MSM



MAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAS  Masco (-0.0)


FXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXY  Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (0.0)


UWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWM  ProShares Ultra Russell2000 (0.0)


ILMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ILMN  Illumina (0.01)


DAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAL  Delta Air Lines (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MSM



JDST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JDST  Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Be (-0.52)


INSG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INSG  Inseego (-0.52)


NOK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOK  Nokia (-0.52)


PM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PM  Philip Morris International (-0.54)


LLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LLY  Lilly(Eli) (-0.54)









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