SPOT Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Increasing user base, ad revenue growth, and strong institutional interest position SPOT for further upside. Historical returns outline a probable increase.


Bearish Case: Competitive pressures and Paul Vogel's departure could hamper financial stability. Elevated implied volatility indicates potential market correction risks.


Potential Outcomes: Continued user growth and ad revenue boost (40%); Competitive pressures and stagnation (35%); Sharp market correction (25%). Adjusting probabilities based on historical and updated data.


Trading Oracle: Deploy bullish short-volatility strategy with a put credit spread: sell $290 strike put, buy three $275 strike puts, expiring in ~2 days. High probability of profit (61%) leveraging Helium's edge. Optimal risk/reward.


July 18, 2024


Spotify Technology Forecast

SPOT      Spotify Technology











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPOT



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.88)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.4)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.81)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.82)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPOT



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.4)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.81)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.82)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.88)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPOT



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.88)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.4)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.81)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.82)





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