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MTB Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: MTB's mean-reverting nature, coupled with a 24.1% annual return and favorable implied volatility, suggests potential gains. Strategic growth in digital banking further supports a positive outlook.



Bearish Case: Despite recent rebounds, flat implied volatility, coupled with regulatory and economic concerns, indicates potential stagnation or downturn risks. Elevated Helium-forecasted volatility points to market wariness.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. 50% chance of moderate growth from historical trends.
  2. 30% chance of stagnation with flat volatility.
  3. 20% chance of downturn amid external pressures.



Trading Oracle: Leveraging the flat volatility term structure and mean-reversion tendencies, implement a Bullish Short Volatility strategy. This capitalizes on potential dips in implied volatility while balancing risk through OOTM put options. The structure suggests a favorable return:risk dynamic.


March 27, 2025


M & T Forecast

MTB        M & T

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MTB


EWBC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWBC  East West Bancorp (0.97)


AIT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AIT  Applied Industrial (0.97)


QTWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QTWO  Q2 (0.96)


UPST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UPST  Upstart (0.94)


AXP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AXP  American Express (0.94)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MTB


ENVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENVX  Enovix (-0.0)


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (0.01)


XLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLV  Health Care Select Sector SPDR (-0.01)


DDD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDD  3D Systems (-0.01)


TDOC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDOC  Teladoc Health (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MTB


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.73)


XP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XP  XP (-0.73)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (-0.74)


STM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STM  New York Shares (-0.74)


UDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDN  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.77)







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