Bullish Case: MTH's strong historical returns and geographic expansion could drive further demand. The current market sentiment appears positive, with increased call option volume suggesting bullish investor outlooks.

Bearish Case: Persistently high mortgage rates and market volatility pose risks to MTH's growth, potentially leading to decreased housing demand and continued insider selling that could pressure the stock price further.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued growth through geographical expansion (60%);

2) High mortgage rates reduce demand (75%);

3) Increased insider selling compounds pressures (40%);

4) Positive economic indicators boost sentiment (30%).

Trading Oracle: Given MTH's positive sentiment and low volatility, consider a put credit spread at strikes $180/$175, expiring shortly. This strategy capitalizes on premium from elevated implied volatility while limiting downside. Target a profit of over 15% with an 80% probability of success based on current market conditions.

November 14, 2024