NAPA Forecast


Bullish Case: NAPA's strategic acquisitions and expanding direct-to-consumer business can drive revenue growth, supported by improving industry conditions.


Bearish Case: Persistently high volatility and mean-reverting price trends suggest further downside risk, especially given recent market underperformance.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Luxury wine market recovery: 30%;

2. Continued decline: 45%;

3. Positive earnings surprise: 15%;

4. Regulatory impact and revenue growth: 10%.


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June 27, 2024


Duckhorn Portfolio Forecast

NAPA      Duckhorn Portfolio











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with NAPA



MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (0.94)


PRTA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PRTA  Prothena (0.93)


PTLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTLO  Portillos (0.93)


CMP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMP  Compass Minerals International (0.93)


GPRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GPRE  Green Plains (0.93)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NAPA



AKBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AKBA  Akebia Therapeutics (-0.0)


YANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YANG  Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares (0.0)


UAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UAL  United Airlines (-0.0)


EPAM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPAM  EPAM Systems (0.0)


MQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MQ  Marqeta (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NAPA



MMYT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MMYT  MakeMyTrip (-0.94)


WDC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WDC  Western Digital (-0.94)


VRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRT  Vertiv (-0.94)


NRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NRG  NRG Energy (-0.94)


SFM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SFM  Sprouts Farmers Market (-0.94)





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