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NAVI Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: NAVI's stabilized implied volatility and increased call option volume suggest upside potential, supported by cost-cutting measures improving margins.

Bearish Case: Existing regulatory challenges, declining stock price, and high put volatility reflect persistent negative sentiment and operational risks for NAVI.

Potential Outcomes: Positive Earnings Surprise: 20% - Enhanced by expense cuts and cost optimizations.
Regulatory Setbacks: 40% - Continued legal pressures and scrutiny.
Market Stabilization: 30% - Potential sector recovery influencing NAVI positively.
Negative Earnings Shock: 10% - Potential further declines if earnings disappoint.

Trading Oracle: Consider employing the Bullish Long Volatility strategy by buying OOTM call options and selling fewer further OOTM call options. This leverages NAVI's stabilized implied volatility futures, balancing risk while capturing potential upside.

March 15, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with NAVI

TXT Textron (0.87)

BC Brunswick (0.87)

IOVA Iovance Biotherapeutics (0.85)

ABEV Ambev (0.8)

PPG PPG Industries (0.8)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NAVI

CORN Teucrium Corn (-0.0)

TAL TAL Education (0.01)

FE Firstenergy (-0.02)

LABD Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.03)

VXUS Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Total International Stock (-0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NAVI

WIX Wix.com (-0.7)

DESP Despegar.com (-0.71)

CRK Comstock Resources (-0.74)

EAT Brinker International (-0.74)

HIMS Hims & Hers Health (-0.75)

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Bullish / Bearish

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Trading Strategies

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Short Volatility

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