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NDP Forecast

Price Forecast:

Bearish <-> Bullish

Bullish Case: NDP may see price appreciation due to potential recovery in the energy sector and improving political stability as elections approach. Historical data suggests strong long-term returns, especially beyond 2 years.

Bearish Case: Political instability and ongoing controversies could further diminish investor confidence in NDP, leading to price declines. Recent stagnation hints at possible bearish trends ahead.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Economic recovery boosts NDP prices (30%)

2. Political turmoil reduces confidence, causing declines (40%)

3. Continued flat performance due to stagnation (30%)

Trading Oracle: Consider implementing bullish debit spreads, targeting price recovery as energy sector prospects improve. Leverage the historical tendency of price appreciation after 2 years. Optimal horizon for spreads: 6-12 months. Favor long volatility approach for greater potential upside.

November 17, 2024

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with NDP

TRGP Targa Resources (0.97)

VNOM Viper Energy (0.96)

CVNA Carvana (0.95)

FTAI Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors (0.95)

PPC Pilgrim's Pride (0.95)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NDP

UNG United States Commodity Funds (0.0)

BNTX BioNTech SE (0.0)

HRL Hormel Foods (-0.01)

LUV Southwest Airlines (-0.01)

EXTR Extreme Networks (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NDP

SEDG Solaredge (-0.92)

SAGE Sage Therapeutics (-0.92)

ETSY Etsy (-0.92)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.92)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.93)

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Market Forecasts

Bullish / Bearish

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Trading Strategies

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Short Volatility

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