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NDP Forecast



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: A potential recovery in the energy sector and political stabilization in Nova Scotia could drive NDP prices higher, leveraging historical trends showing favorable returns for durations over 1-2 years, as indicated by the return surface graph.



Bearish Case: Continued political controversies and economic uncertainties may keep investor confidence low, risking downward pressure on NDP prices. The return surface suggests poor outcomes for short holding periods under similar conditions.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 1. Market recovery in energy boosts prices (30% chance).
  • 2. Continued political instability leads to declines (40% chance).
  • 3. Neutral price movements remain (30% chance).



Trading Oracle: Consider implementing a credit spread strategy on NDP. Based on current flat price action and historical performance, targeting 6-9 month expirations would capitalize on high probabilities of neutral movements, maximizing reward/risk potential. Focus on an outlook for stability with a slight bullish tilt.


December 18, 2024


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NDP        Tortoise Energy Independence

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GDDY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GDDY  Godaddy (0.95)


TT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TT  Trane (0.95)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NDP


JOBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JOBY  Joby Aviation (0.0)


S Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   S  Sprint (-0.0)


NSSC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NSSC  NAPCO Security (-0.01)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (-0.02)


DKNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DKNG  DraftKings (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NDP


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.9)


XRAY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRAY  DENTSPLY Sirona (-0.91)


BIOX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIOX  Bioceres Crop (-0.91)


SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDS  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.94)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.94)







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