Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: NEXT could experience substantial upside from successful execution of the Rio Grande LNG project, complemented by increasing global demand for LNG, driving stock appreciation.

Bearish Case: Continued market uncertainty, high implied volatility, and frequent insider selling could lead to significant downward pressure, with investor sentiment deteriorating further.

Potential Outcomes:

• Success of Rio Grande project boosts stock by +40% (40% probability).
• Market underperformance and volatility leads to -30% decline (30% probability).
• Market stabilizes due to new loan procurement (30% probability).

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish approach with debit spreads, specifically targeting NEXT 7.00 C options for April 2025 against a short 10.00 C for enhanced risk management. The current high implied volatility suggests a favorable opportunity to leverage upward movement with manageable exposure to adverse outcomes.

December 17, 2024