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Bullish Case: NMT could see price appreciation driven by successful Phase 2 results for zelenirstat, which historically leads to positive sentiment and potential returns of over 15% within a year.

Bearish Case: Ongoing regulatory setbacks and unfavorable market conditions could inhibit NMT's price recovery, with historical data indicating a 45% chance of continued underperformance.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Phase 2 success increases price by 15% (55% chance).

2. FDA approvals boost price by 5% (30% chance).

3. Unfavorable economic conditions persist, leading to a 20% drop (45% chance).

4. Regulatory delays cause a 20% decline (20% chance).

Trading Oracle: Consider utilizing credit spreads to profit from a potentially stable NMT price in the short term. This position leverages time decay and minimizes risk exposure, aiming for modest returns in a subdued market environment.

September 18, 2024