Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: A successful Phase 2 trial for zelenirstat could lead to significant price appreciation as investor confidence builds, potentially boosting NMT's price by over 15% in the next year.

Bearish Case: Regulatory delays and persistent unfavorable market conditions may continue to hinder NMT's growth, with potential declines exceeding 20% if conditions do not improve.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Phase 2 success: 55% chance; Major price jump (>15%).

2. FDA approval: 30% chance; Moderate price increase (5%).

3. Ongoing market issues: 45% chance; Likelihood of 20% price drop.

4. Regulatory setbacks: 20% chance; Major price decline.

Trading Oracle: Adopt a neutral credit spread strategy by selling short call spreads, leveraging current price stability and capturing time decay. Aim for modest premiums over the next quarter as market conditions remain uncertain; positioning this for high probability of profit and favorable risk-reward dynamics.

November 12, 2024