ORLY Forecast


Bullish Case: ORLY shows a bullish risk skew (51% more than bearish) and a consistent price rise over five years (+172.3%). Recent analyst upgrades and continued sector growth support ORLY's potential upside in the near term.


Bearish Case: Recent price performance is mean-reverting, indicating potential stagnation or downside. The flat term structure suggests limited volatility expectations, providing a cautious outlook in the face of an uncertain market.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Analyst optimism catalyzes a bull run (35%).

2. Mean-reverting nature leads to price stability, minor fluctuations (40%).

3. Market downturn pressures shares negatively (25%).


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April 30, 2024


O'Reilly Automotive Forecast

ORLY        O'Reilly Automotive
Price Forecast: NEUTRAL    Price Action: MEAN REVERTING (?)











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