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ORLY Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: ORLY's historical returns show a high likelihood of positive performance, combined with strong market sentiment and implied volatility indicating optimism in the near term.



Bearish Case: Flat term structure and increased put option volume suggest market skepticism and potential continued underperformance relative to competitors in a volatile environment.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Price recovery due to strong fundamentals and sector growth (50%).
  2. Market correction causes stagnation amid economic concerns (30%).
  3. Competitive pressures lead to short-term decline (20%).



Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread by buying ORLY March 1300 calls and selling March 1350 calls. Focus on short-term recovery leveraging the favorable sentiment, prioritizing a positive reward:risk ratio. Monitor implied volatility changes for adjustments.


January 30, 2025


O'Reilly Automotive Forecast

ORLY        O'Reilly Automotive

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ORLY


CBRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CBRE  CBRE (0.91)


NOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOW  ServiceNow (0.89)


CINF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CINF  Cincinnati Financial (0.88)


PH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PH  Parker-Hannifin (0.87)


REPL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REPL  Replimune (0.85)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ORLY


CRNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRNC  Cerence (-0.0)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (0.01)


CMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMC  Commercial Metals (-0.01)


KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (-0.02)


CZR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CZR  Caesars Entertainment (0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ORLY


RILY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RILY  B. Riley Financial (-0.81)


VAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VAL  Valaris (-0.81)


BLNK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BLNK  Blink Charging (-0.82)


NEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NEP  NextEra Energy (-0.85)


BIIB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIIB  Biogen (-0.88)







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