ORLY Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: ORLY shows strong historical performance and resilience with a bullish risk skew. Helium's implied volatility is above market expectations, indicating potential upward movement.




Bearish Case: Flat term structure and low trading volume suggest potential for stagnation. High recent put volume compared to calls raises concerns about downside risks.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Price recovery driven by strategic growth (30%).

2. Continued stagnation due to competitive pressures (45%).

3. Broader market downturn affecting price (25%).




Trading Oracle: Bearish Short Volatility strategy: Sell ATM call options, buy more OTM calls, leveraging implied volatility insights for optimized returns with downside risk limitation.



May 06, 2025


O'Reilly Automotive Forecast

ORLY        O'Reilly Automotive











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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ORLY



RMBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RMBS  Rambus (0.01)


TTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTI  Tetra Technologies (-0.01)


MNSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MNSO  MINISO Group Holding Ltd (-0.03)


STLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STLD  Steel Dynamics (-0.04)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (0.04)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ORLY



ADNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADNT  Adient (-0.92)


STM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STM  New York Shares (-0.92)


ASH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASH  Ashland (-0.94)


MUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MUR  Murphy Oil (-0.94)


TDW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDW  Tidewater Inc. - New (-0.94)









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