Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Insider confidence through significant share purchases signals potential for recovery. Upcoming patent enforcements and tech validations could catalyze a price upswing, supported by decreasing market volatility as observed on the implied volatility surface.

Bearish Case: Ouster's persistent downward trend amidst historical volatility and uncertainty raises concerns. Continued skepticism from the market, reflected by high implied volatility levels, could lead to further price declines and stagnation.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful product validations and patent enforcement could boost share price by 30% (40% chance).
2. Market skepticism persists, maintaining a range-bound trading environment without major gains (30% chance).
3. Heightened volatility leads to significant downward price movement, dropping shares by 25% (30% chance).

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread: buy 1 $9.00 call and sell 1 $10.00 call expiring in 29 days. This strategy leverages current upward momentum and low market volatility, anticipating a price rise while controlling risk with a strong potential reward. Focus on high probability of profit from potential market catalysts.

November 22, 2024