OWL Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: OWL's consistent AUM growth, strategic acquisitions, and modest volatility suggest potential upside. With strong historical returns, sentiment remains optimistic as the market stabilizes, enhancing investor confidence.




Bearish Case: Economic pressures, high implied volatility, and rising default rates highlight risk. Hedge funds' short positions against private credit add to bearish concerns, increasing potential for downward pressure on OWL.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 60%: Sustained AUM growth with stable economy.
  • 30%: Rising defaults impact performance.
  • 10%: Successful strategic M&A boosts growth.




Trading Oracle: Implement the Bullish Short Volatility strategy. Selling put options leverages the flat term structure and positive volume trends, offering a 78% market odds with a 15% potential return. This aligns with a bullish bias and manageable risk.



May 20, 2025


Blue Owl Forecast

OWL        Blue Owl











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with OWL



MAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAC  Macerich (0.92)


SYF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SYF  Synchrony Financial (0.89)


MTB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MTB  M & T (0.87)


SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.87)


AXP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AXP  American Express (0.87)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to OWL



JDST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JDST  Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Be (-0.0)


BEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BEN  Franklin Resources (0.0)


INTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTC  Intel (-0.0)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (0.01)


CLSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLSK  Cleanspark (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against OWL



XP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XP  XP (-0.56)


BIV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIV  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond (-0.6)


TMDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMDX  Transmedics (-0.66)


PAGS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAGS  PagSeguro Digital (-0.72)


UDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDN  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.76)









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