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OWL Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Blue Owl's steady AUM growth and strategic M&A offer a strong investment outlook, enhanced by favorable volatility conditions suggesting potential price appreciation.



Bearish Case: Economic headwinds may increase borrower defaults and pressure on OWL's portfolio, exacerbated by heightened market volatility and uncertain market conditions.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 1) Continued AUM growth with a 60% chance.
  • 2) Increased defaults due to economic downturns at 30%.
  • 3) Successful M&A activity with 80% probability.



Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish long call debit spread by buying OWL $24 calls and selling $25 calls, targeting a mid-term expiry of 45 days for defined risk while capitalizing on anticipated upward price movements and current low implied volatility.


December 20, 2024


Blue Owl Forecast

OWL        Blue Owl

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IR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IR  Ingersoll-Rand (0.89)


CAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAT  Caterpillar (0.89)


RJF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RJF  Raymond James Financial (0.86)


APO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APO  Apollo (0.84)


CG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CG  Carlyle (0.82)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to OWL


THO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   THO  Thor Industries (-0.0)


BE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BE  Bloom Energy (0.01)


ABNB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABNB  Airbnb (0.01)


MPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPC  Marathon Petroleum (0.01)


FRO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRO  Frontline (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against OWL


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.69)


SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDS  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.69)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.72)


BIIB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIIB  Biogen (-0.74)


BMRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMRN  Registered Shares (-0.77)







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