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OWL Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Recent mean-reverting trends, strategic M&A activity, and enhanced AUM position OWL favorably for growth opportunities.



Bearish Case: Prevailing economic headwinds and elevated implied volatility suggest potential downside due to borrower default risk.



Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued AUM growth due to strategic M&A (60% probability).

2) Rising defaults in downturn (30%).

3) Strategic expansions boosting presence (80%).



Trading Oracle: Initiate bullish short volatility strategy by selling 3 $22 put options and buying 4 $20 put options. Target expiration ~85 days with 73% market odds of profit. This strategy leverages high positive edge and a 19% potential return.


February 21, 2025


Blue Owl Forecast

OWL        Blue Owl

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with OWL


COF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COF  Capital One Financial (0.87)


CG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CG  Carlyle (0.86)


MIR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MIR  Mirion Technologies Inc. (0.84)


APO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APO  Apollo (0.84)


CAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAT  Caterpillar (0.84)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to OWL


ODFL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ODFL  Old Dominion Freight Line (-0.0)


WY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WY  Weyerhaeuser (-0.01)


CPA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CPA  Copa (-0.01)


CORN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CORN  Teucrium Corn (-0.01)


ACGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACGL  Arch (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against OWL


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.67)


BCE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCE  BCE (-0.69)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.7)


BIIB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIIB  Biogen (-0.73)


CNXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNXC  Concentrix (-0.78)







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