OWL Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Robust AUM growth potential, strategic M&A successes, and positive volatility outlook position OWL for upward movement.




Bearish Case: Rising borrower defaults and macroeconomic pressures may jeopardize earnings, with volatility suggesting elevated risk.




Potential Outcomes: AUM growth continues (60%), increased defaults amid downturns (30%), successful strategic M&A (80%).




Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread: buy OWL $24 calls, sell $25 calls, targeting mid-term upside on anticipated growth, leveraging manageable risk with a high reward:risk ratio.



January 16, 2025


Blue Owl Forecast

OWL        Blue Owl











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with OWL



COF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COF  Capital One Financial (0.86)


CG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CG  Carlyle (0.84)


APO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APO  Apollo (0.84)


MIR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MIR  Mirion Technologies Inc. (0.82)


BBW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBW  Build A Bear Workshop (0.81)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to OWL



IGM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGM  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Expanded Tech Sector (-0.0)


UUUU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUUU  Energy Fuels (0.01)


SRPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRPT  Sarepta Therapeutics (-0.02)


LAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LAC  Lithium Americas (-0.02)


VOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOD  Vodafone (0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against OWL



SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.68)


BCE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCE  BCE (-0.7)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.72)


BIIB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIIB  Biogen (-0.74)


CNXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNXC  Concentrix (-0.81)









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