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AI PAG Forecast

Price Forecast:

Bearish <-> Bullish

Bullish Case: PAG's solid historical performance, reflected in mean reversion and strong financials, supports bullish sentiment. The upcoming earnings report on November 15 could reinforce positive momentum, attracting investors seeking exposure to growth in the automotive sector.

Bearish Case: Ongoing insider selling and high implied volatility raise concerns about market confidence in PAG's future performance. If investor caution prevails post-earnings, a price decline could materialize, particularly if results are disappointing.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Positive earnings surprise leading to a 10% increase in stock price (60% probability).

2) Weak earnings causing a 5% drop (30% probability).

3) Market adjustment stabilizing near current levels (10% probability).

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October 04, 2024

Penske Automotive Forecast

PAG Penske Automotive

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PAG

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ES Eversource Energy (0.6)

KMX Carmax (0.59)

FTS Fortis (0.58)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PAG

MSFT Microsoft (-0.0)

DBI Designer Brands (0.0)

COTY Coty (-0.0)

AMAT Applied Materials (0.0)

SDGR Schrodinger (-0.0)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PAG

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TMV Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.38)

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DRV Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.47)

RWM ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.51)

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