Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Pfizer's pipeline expansion into oncology and successful drug approvals indicate strong growth potential. With positive outcomes anticipated in ongoing trials, market interest may rejuvenate, driving prices upward.

Bearish Case: Legal challenges, combined with declining vaccine sales and market skepticism over new vaccine updates, pose significant risks. Uncertainty regarding regulatory responses could further dampen investor confidence and stall price recovery.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful drug approvals: 60% likelihood.

2. Major legal losses: 50% chance, could influence profitability.

3. Positive EU regulatory changes for vaccines: 40% chance, may boost sales.

4. Sustained decline in COVID-19 product sales: 70% chance, impacting revenues severely.

5. Market gaining confidence due to strategic acquisitions: 55% probability.

Trading Oracle: Consider implementing a bullish short volatility strategy. Sell 3 $24.5 put options and buy 4 $24 puts, exploiting high implied volatility and capturing potential upward movement in Pfizer's stock. This strategy provides a 67% market odds of profit, managing risk while aiming for substantial returns with minimal downside exposure.

November 19, 2024