Bullish Case: With low implied volatility relative to historical data and support from historical returns, PPH may see a rebound toward $95 as market sentiment improves due to recent stability in price and a favorable long-term outlook.

Bearish Case: High put volume indicates market caution; if volatility increases, PPH could decline toward the low $80s as recent bearish sentiment clouds the outlook, especially if downward trends continue.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Price stagnation around $86 (35% chance);

2. Moderate recovery to $95 (40% chance) supported by improving sentiment;

3. Decline to the low $80s (25%) driven by increased market uncertainty.

Trading Oracle: Consider entering a bearish credit spread by selling $90 calls and buying $92 calls, capitalizing on high implied volatility and bearish sentiment. This strategy offers a favorable risk/reward profile with market expectations leaning towards sluggish price movement. Target for earnings in 35-60 days.

November 19, 2024