PTH Forecast


Bullish Case: Recent biotech innovation like PEPITEM's osteoporotic benefits may drive a rally, putting PTH around $50 (+10%) in six months. Historical stability and positive relative likelihoods over holding periods support this view.


Bearish Case: High implied volatility in short-term options reflects market fears. Recent flat price trends and potential for biotech setbacks could mean PTH plummeting around $34 (-25%) over the next six months.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Sideways Market (~$43, 50%) - Pricing remains stable.

2. Sector Rally (~$50, 30%) – Biotech innovations boost.

3. Bearish Drawdown (~$34, 20%) – Market fears materialize.


Trading Oracle: Initiate a short-term debit spread. Buy a 45-strike call and sell a 50-strike call expiring in 3 months. This captures potential biotech-driven rally while capping risk. Positive risk/reward ratio. High vol suits debit spreads. High reward/risk and profitability.


July 16, 2024


Invesco Capital Management LLC - Invesco DWA Healthcare Momentum Forecast

PTH      Invesco Capital Management LLC - Invesco DWA Healthcare Momentum











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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PTH



CME Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CME  CME (0.0)


OTEX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OTEX  Open Text (-0.01)


KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (-0.01)


RGTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RGTI  Rigetti Computing (0.01)


POR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   POR  Portland General Electric (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PTH



EQNR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EQNR  Equinor ASA - (-0.9)


RWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWM  ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.91)


SRTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRTY  ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000 (-0.91)


DXD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DXD  ProShares UltraShort Dow30 (-0.91)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.91)





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