Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Rising confidence in RELY stems from an expanding user base and advantageous partnerships, particularly with Visa. The evolving options term structure indicates increased market optimism and potential for price appreciation in the coming months.

Bearish Case: Despite potential, market skepticism due to prior insider selling and subdued growth metrics casts a shadow on RELY’s outlook. High put volumes and increased implied volatility reflect persistent caution, making significant downside risks probable.

Potential Outcomes:

• Positive Visa partnership success (25%): Increased user engagement drives growth.
• Regulatory scrutiny increases (15%): Leads to legal challenges affecting market sentiment.
• Historical performance stability (30%): Price remains range-bound as market digests information.
• Competitor innovations hinder growth (30%): Market share erosion limits upward price movement.

Trading Oracle: Given the contango in implied volatility, consider initiating a debit spread strategy by purchasing RELY January 2025 22.50 calls and selling 25.00 calls. This captures upside potential while mitigating risk in a bullish scenario. Time horizon: 1-3 months, targeting steady growth from expected positive catalysts.

November 26, 2024