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RIOT Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Growing market optimism, driven by potential regulatory clarity and rising Bitcoin prices, could push RIOT to $15, validated by historical return trends and elevated demand in crypto mining.



Bearish Case: Ongoing macroeconomic headwinds and regulatory challenges may consolidate RIOT near $7-$11, as elevated implied volatility indicates hesitation in market sentiment under uncertain conditions.



Potential Outcomes:

1. $15 by year-end (30% chance) due to bullish sentiment.


2. $10 range (50%) as macro issues persist.


3. Below $7 (20%) if negative market trends dominate.



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying RIOT $12.50 calls and selling $14 calls, anticipating increased volatility. Given the favorable skew in implied volatility, this strategy allows for significant upside exposure with controlled downside risk.


December 15, 2024


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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with RIOT


EHTH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EHTH  eHealth (0.82)


FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (0.81)


ASAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASAN  Asana (0.79)


DDD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDD  3D Systems (0.75)


CBRL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CBRL  Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (0.73)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RIOT


CLMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLMT  Calumet Specialty Products (-0.0)


WPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WPC  W. P. Carey (-0.0)


FOUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FOUR  Shift4 Payments (0.0)


CLX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLX  Clorox (-0.01)


CPRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CPRT  Copart (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RIOT


MPWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPWR  Monolithic Power System (-0.67)


KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (-0.68)


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (-0.69)


SA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SA  Seabridge Gold (-0.7)


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (-0.7)







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