RIVN Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Rivian's partnership with Amazon, production expansion, and bullish options trading hint at positive momentum. Innovative features like Dolby Atmos enhance brand appeal.




Bearish Case: Persistent production issues, cash burn, and competitive pressures from established automakers pose significant risks. Mean-reverting price trends reflect ongoing challenges.




Potential Outcomes:
  1. Revenue growth: 50%
  2. Continued cash burn: 60%
  3. Improved production metrics: 40%
  4. Increased competition impacts market share: 30%




Trading Oracle: Bearish Short Volatility strategy is chosen due to high implied volatility and recent price declines. Selling ATM call options and buying OTM call options mitigates risk while capturing premium from volatility decay. Profitable with Helium confidence.



March 20, 2025


Rivian Automotive Forecast

RIVN        Rivian Automotive











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Assets that tend to move strongly with RIVN



XPOF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XPOF  Xponential Fitness (0.52)


ENVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENVX  Enovix (0.52)


HIMX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIMX  Himax (0.5)


AVXL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AVXL  Anavex Life Sciences (0.45)


CALX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CALX  Calix (0.45)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RIVN



CXW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CXW  CoreCivic (-0.0)


INDI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INDI  Indie Semiconductor (-0.0)


SCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCO  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.0)


DFEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DFEN  Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (0.0)


PWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PWR  Quanta Services (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RIVN



IOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IOVA  Iovance Biotherapeutics (-0.49)


FND Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FND  Floor & Decor (-0.52)


MNST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MNST  Monster Beverage (-0.57)


J Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   J  Jacobs Engineering Group (-0.58)


LAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LAC  Lithium Americas (-0.58)









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