RLYB Forecast


Bullish Case: Rallybio's collaboration with Johnson & Johnson could yield positive results if the FNAIT treatment shows promise, driving market sentiment and stock price up. The historical return surface hints at potential positive returns on longer holding periods.


Bearish Case: Rallybio's mean-reverting nature and historical price action suggest more downside risk, combined with increasing net losses and limited diversification. Layoffs and restructuring in the biopharma sector add further pressure.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful Phase II trials (30%).

2. Continued financial decline due to cash burn (40%).

3. Acquisition or strategic partnership (15%).

4. Adverse macroeconomic events impacting biopharma (15%).


Trading Oracle: Given RLYB's mean-reverting nature and current downtrend, Helium Short Volatility with credit spreads is optimal. Target 6 months for spreads between $1 and $0.5; high probability due to historical patterns and sector pressure.


July 03, 2024


Rallybio Forecast

RLYB      Rallybio











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