SAM Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: SAM's strategic focus on brand diversification and upcoming product launches could spark renewed investor interest, driving demand higher.




Bearish Case: Continued market saturation and declining seltzer demand may lead to further price depreciation, exacerbating high volatility concerns.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Price stabilization around current levels (40%)
  • Minor rebound if new products perform (30%)
  • Further decline due to competitive pressure (30%)




Trading Oracle: Engage in Bullish Short Volatility strategy. Current backwardation and ATM skew indicate potential for capturing volatility premium while managing downside risks.



May 06, 2025


Boston Beer Co. Forecast

SAM        Boston Beer Co.











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Uncorrelated Assets

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PTON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTON  Peloton Interactive (0.0)


RMBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RMBS  Rambus (-0.0)


UPST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UPST  Upstart (-0.01)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SAM



SNY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SNY  Sanofi (-0.58)


FEZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FEZ  SPDR EURO Stoxx 50 (-0.63)


EQX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EQX  Equinox Gold (-0.64)


SAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAN  Banco Santander (-0.67)


GFI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GFI  Gold Fields (-0.67)









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