Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: The historical return surface indicates a high probability of positive returns over longer holding periods, suggesting potential for price recovery and growth if current sentiment shifts.

Bearish Case: Current volatility data shows significant uncertainty, with implied volatility near pivotal strike levels indicating potential for downward price pressure in the short term.

Potential Outcomes:

• Positive earnings report could drive short-term gains (+40%)
• Continued market flatness may keep prices stagnant (30%)
• Negative catalysts from broader market trends or earnings miss could drop prices below $80 (-30%)
• Increased put volume suggests significant downside risk (20%)

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying SCI $90 calls while selling $95 calls, capturing potential upside leveraging recent volatility drops. With SCI currently stabilizing, utilize earnings momentum for a high-reward scenario while controlling risk. Consider time frame of 30-60 days for optimal profitability.

December 17, 2024