SERA Forecast


Bullish Case: Strong past gains and recent PreTRM trial success suggest significant upside. AI forecast of +2.13% and substantial historical returns support potential rebound. Increasing institutional interest may further drive price up.


Bearish Case: Recent steep decline and negative quarterly results mean downside. High implied volatility, significant put interest, and lukewarm AI correlation signal potential for more drops. Trending flat last week indicates uncertainty.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Short-term uptrend: 50%, based on AI forecast, historical returns (holding years data), and trial success.

2. Continued decline: 30%, due to high IV and heavy put option interest.

3. Sideways movement: 20%, as price flat with mixed volatility indicators.


Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread: buy the 08/16/2024 $7.50 Call (IV: 78.1) and sell the $10.00 Call (IV: 93.8). Time outlook: 4 weeks. This capitalizes on potential upside while controlling risk. High IV favors long-volatility (debit spread) strategy with positive edge.


July 23, 2024


Sera Prognostics Forecast

SERA      Sera Prognostics











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SERA



TGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TGT  Target (0.94)


TREX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TREX  TREX Co. (0.93)


AME Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AME  Ametek (0.92)


IOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IOVA  Iovance Biotherapeutics (0.92)


H Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   H  Hyatt Hotels (0.91)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SERA



EDV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EDV  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (0.0)


FPI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FPI  Farmland (-0.0)


VIR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIR  Vir Biotechnology (-0.0)


DE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DE  Deere (0.01)


JBHT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JBHT  J.B. Hunt Transport Services (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SERA



EQNR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EQNR  Equinor ASA - (-0.87)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.88)


HNRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HNRG  Hallador Energy (-0.9)


CHTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHTR  Charter Communications (-0.91)


HUM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUM  Humana (-0.91)


SERA News over Time





Click points to explore news by date. News sentiment ranges from -10 (very negative) to +10 (very positive) where 0 is neutral.






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