Bullish Case: SHIP's potential for recovery is evident with strategic fleet expansions and increased sector demand. The current low price may attract speculative interest and provide upside from favorable market sentiment.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and geopolitical risks suggest caution. Market concerns around profitability and fluctuating demand dynamics could suppress SHIP's recovery, making it prone to further downside.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Price rebounds to $9 (60%) from strategic growth initiatives.

2. Stabilizes around $7 due to market caution (30%).

3. Declines to $5 on economic volatility (10%).

Trading Oracle: Pursue bullish debit spreads (e.g., SHIP 8.00/9.00 call for July 2025). This leverages moderate implied volatility, anticipating a potential rebound. Near-term geopolitical risks necessitate strategic exits above $9. The plan offers high reward:risk due to relative value disparities.

January 29, 2025