SHOP Forecast




Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: SHOP could see significant upside as strong holiday season sales and successful integrations with partners like Amazon boost investor confidence, coupled with a positive earnings report ahead of key retail periods.




Bearish Case: Continued competition from Amazon and TikTok may pressure SHOP's market share, along with potential legal troubles impacting financial performance, which could lead to stock volatility and decreased investor sentiment.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Strong holiday sales drive stock up (40%);

2. Legal challenges surface (30%);

3. Increased competitive pressures limit growth (50%);

4. Strategic partnerships yield sustained revenue growth (60%).




Trading Oracle: Position bullishly with a call spread leveraging the upward momentum seen in the implied volatility, targeting $125 calls for January 2025 expiry. Focus on mitigating risks associated with elevated market expectations but capitalize on strong retail trends this holiday season. Tighten stops near current levels to safeguard against sudden downturns.



December 12, 2024


Shopify Forecast

SHOP        Shopify











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