Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Positive Phase 3 data could significantly boost investor confidence, leading to a rapid price increase as market sentiment shifts favorably.

Bearish Case: Continued cash burn and negative trial outcomes could lead to a sharp decline as investor sentiment further deteriorates, in line with historical trends.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 25% chance of positive Phase 3 data leading to price rally.

2. 30% chance of stagnation due to inconclusive results.

3. 45% chance of further decline driven by cash burn or negative news events, consistent with prior trends.

Trading Oracle: Consider a protective bear call spread targeting $1.50-$2.00 strikes in December 2024. Market condition reflects a bearish-to-neutral stance, exploiting high implied volatility while maintaining significant risk management. Secure premium in the range of $0.50 - $0.80 to leverage potential downward momentum without excessive exposure.

November 12, 2024