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SOXL Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Recent tech advancements and AI integration drive high semiconductor demand. The Helium implied volatility data suggests potential underestimation of bullish market movement, aided by improving macroeconomic conditions.

Bearish Case: Flat term structure and high implied volatility signal potential corrections. SOXL's reliance on volatile sectors and macroeconomic instability could amplify downturns, especially with concerns over tech sector cooling.

Potential Outcomes: Surge in semiconductor demand: 45%
Tech sector cooling: 25%
Macroeconomic volatility impacts: 25%
Unexpected regulation: 5%

Trading Oracle: Bullish Short Volatility is optimal given high demand forecasts and undervalued volatility. Selling ATM puts and buying OOTM puts captures potential upside with leveraged volatility, aligning with Helium forecasts.

May 07, 2025

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Price Forecast
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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SOXL

STM New York Shares (0.92)

NXPI NXP Semiconductors (0.91)

CDW CDW (0.9)

TDW Tidewater Inc. - New (0.9)

ODP ODP (0.89)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SOXL

DKS Dicks Sporting Goods (0.0)

UWM ProShares Ultra Russell2000 (-0.0)

TBT PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.01)

MRVL Marvell Technology (-0.03)

APPN Appian (0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SOXL

ALL Allstate (-0.79)

LNG Cheniere Energy (-0.79)

ADP Automatic Data Processing (-0.81)

LRN Stride (-0.81)

FOXA Fox Corporation - (-0.84)

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