SPI Forecast


Bullish Case: SPI, though heavily depreciated, has seen historical innovation in proteomics and EVs. Given recent mean-reversion trends and potential policy tailwinds, a recovery could be possible.


Bearish Case: Recent price declines and high implied volatility indicate persistent downtrends. Limited institutional ownership further dilutes positive sentiment, foreshadowing continued underperformance.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued decline as market volatility persists (65%).

2. Slow, mean-reverting recovery (25%).

3. Sudden spike due to positive developments or policy changes (10%).


Trading Oracle: Maintain a bearish outlook. Utilize credit spreads (short volatility) due to high implied volatility. Execute OTM call credit spreads targeting $2.50 - $5.00 strikes for September 2024. This strategy leverages current negative sentiment and high volatility.


July 22, 2024


SPI Energy Forecast

SPI      SPI Energy











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPI



PACB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PACB  Pacific Biosciences of California (0.94)


CRSR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRSR  Corsair Gaming (0.94)


LEG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEG  Leggett & Platt (0.93)


PTLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTLO  Portillos (0.93)


APPS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APPS  Digital Turbine (0.93)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPI



IONS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IONS  Ionis Pharmaceuticals (0.0)


ARE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARE  Alexandria Real Estate (-0.0)


VEEV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VEEV  Veeva Systems (-0.01)


GRAB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GRAB  Grab Holdings Limited (0.01)


WDAY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WDAY  Workday (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPI



STNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STNG  Scorpio Tankers (-0.89)


FRO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRO  Frontline (-0.9)


MCK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCK  Mckesson (-0.9)


CEG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CEG  Constellation Energy (-0.9)


PGR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PGR  Progressive (-0.91)





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