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SPYG Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: SPYG's implied volatility is relatively low, indicating market complacency, while historical returns show robust growth potential. Heavy call option trading suggests bullish sentiment may drive upside.



Bearish Case: The recent drop in SPYG's price combined with an increase in implied volatility suggests market anxiety and potential for further declines, especially with current economic uncertainties.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. SPYG rises 5% (40%): Driven by strong growth sentiment.
  2. SPYG remains flat (30%): Price stabilization amid volatility.
  3. SPYG drops 5% (30%): Increased market uncertainty affects prices.



Trading Oracle: Given the recent volatility spike and the current market sentiment, a Bearish Long Volatility strategy is ideal. This involves buying OOTM put options and selling fewer further OOTM put options to profit from potential further volatility increases.


May 11, 2025


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Assets that tend to move strongly with SPYG


IVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVV  BTC iShares Core S&P 500 (0.98)


SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.97)


IGV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGV  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector (0.95)


VT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VT  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Total World Stock (0.94)


LITE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LITE  Lumentum (0.94)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPYG


PHM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PHM  PulteGroup (-0.01)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (0.01)


SAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAN  Banco Santander (-0.02)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.02)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPYG


EC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EC  Ecopetrol SA (-0.69)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (-0.73)


XP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XP  XP (-0.74)


UDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDN  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.75)


PAGS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAGS  PagSeguro Digital (-0.76)







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