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Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: SSD's strong historical performance suggests a solid foundation for future growth, supported by rising call volume and favorable sentiment in the construction sector. Implied volatility indicates potential upward swings in price as market confidence builds.

Bearish Case: While SSD's past returns are promising, heightened implied volatility points to significant market uncertainty. A potential market correction or negative earnings surprise could trigger a sharp decline, testing support levels around $180.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Market stabilizes and SSD rebounds to $210 (40% likelihood).

2) Negative sentiment leads to a drop to $170 (30% likelihood).

3) Steady trading around $195 due to fluctuations (20% likelihood).

4) Unexpected volatility spikes, leading to intensed fluctuations (10% likelihood).

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread by buying the SSD 12/20/2024 $210 calls and selling $220 calls, targeting a price climb as market confidence grows. The current high volatility implies potential for significant movement, offering a high reward-to-risk ratio.

September 20, 2024