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STAG Forecast



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Strong occupancy rates and rising demand from e-commerce, supported by strategic acquisitions, may drive STAG's rental growth, resulting in upward price momentum. Historical data suggests favorable returns over multi-year holding periods, enhancing investor confidence.



Bearish Case: Economic uncertainty, high inflation, and rising interest rates could negatively impact demand for industrial real estate. Additionally, STAG's elevated dividend payout ratio raises sustainability concerns, which may lead to price declines.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Continued rental growth from e-commerce (40% chance)
  • Economic downturn affecting demand (35% chance)
  • Interest rate hikes pressuring valuations (15% chance)
  • Dividend cuts due to payout ratio concerns (10% chance)



Trading Oracle: Consider a bull call spread: buy the STAG 12/20/2024 35C and sell the 40C. This strategy takes advantage of expected price stability while minimizing downside risk. Target a moderate-term outlook as e-commerce demand supports the industrial sector, capitalizing on low implied volatility.


December 12, 2024


STAG Industrial Forecast

STAG        STAG Industrial

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NOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOVA  Sunnova Energy International (0.76)


SUI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SUI  Sun Communities (0.76)


JNJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JNJ  Johnson & Johnson (0.76)


FXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXY  Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (0.74)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to STAG


KGC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KGC  Kinross Gold (-0.0)


BYND Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BYND  Beyond Meat (0.0)


PH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PH  Parker-Hannifin (0.0)


TRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRV  Travelers Companies (-0.0)


GLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLD  SPDR Gold Shares (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against STAG


CCJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CCJ  Cameco (-0.67)


RRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RRC  Range Resources (-0.72)


ARCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARCC  Ares (-0.72)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.72)


UUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUP  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish (-0.72)







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