TD Forecast


Bullish Case: TD Bank's mean-reverting price along with recent investments in diverse sectors indicate the potential for a price rebound. The options term structure is in backwardation, suggesting a short-term price uptick.


Bearish Case: TD faces regulatory headwinds and economic uncertainties, as highlighted by UBS, with bearish AI forecasts and historical underperformance. The high short-term implied volatility indicates potential for further declines.


Potential Outcomes: Strong growth in investments (50%) propels ROI and stock; lackluster results (30%) hinder stock; mixed results (15%) lead to neutral impact; recession risks (5%) might deep stock further.


Trading Oracle: Capitalize on near-term backwardation by deploying bullish debit spreads with September 2024 expirations. This aligns with stable implied volatility, high call volume, positive reward:risk ratio, and heightened probability of profit.


July 16, 2024


Toronto Dominion Forecast

TD      Toronto Dominion











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